Morsi's speech unlikely to prevent violence and end of Islamist rule

"If violence surpasses a certain level, the army might be forced to be more proactive than it wants"

Egyptian politics

President Morsi addressed the nation on Wednesday evening facing an invited crowd at Cairo stadium. Morsi’s tone shifted repeatedly during the tortuous almost 3-hour address. Although Morsi began with a conciliatory message, he later singled out political rivals, some of whom left the political scene long ago, for personal attacks and complained of unspecified “enemies of Egypt,” warning that they could destabilize the country.

Morsi launched into a defense of his record and a list of plans to improve on it. Once more, he apologized for the widespread mismanagement by his government and also the fuel shortages that have caused long lines at petrol stations and angered many Egyptians. He similarly acknowledged failings to sufficiently involve the nation's youth.

Despite Morsi’s admission of errors and offers for reform, there was nevertheless an uncompromising denunciation of those he blamed for wanting to "turn the clock back" to before the 2011 revolution.  Morsi announced some decisions that no one took seriously, and he also avoided talking about the 30 June mass rallies to demand his ouster. Morsi reiterated the oft-repeated allegations that he and the Muslim Brotherhood are victims of a vicious media campaign to tarnish the image of the presidency and government and incite violence.

For many, Morsi once again confirmed that he is out of touch and not fit to rule. The speech was largely devoted to defaming a few marginal individuals in an attempt to reduce the protest movements against him as “an act of the remnants of the Mubarak regime to conspire against the revolution.” Some of the individuals he singled out have long been absent from the public.

Morsi’s speech was met with derision by Tahrir Square protesters outside the defense ministry, who voiced their contempt for his address and increased from some hundreds to many thousands by the speech’s end. Moreover, Morsi’s speech provoked angry protesters to go out to the streets and show their determination to topple the regime of the MB. Heavy clashes that left many wounded and dead between his supporters and opponents were reported in several cities throughout the country.

During the actual speech, there was at least one person killed and around 300 injured when his supporters clashed with protesters in front of provincial security headquarters in the northern city of Mansoura in the Nile Delta. There were also heavy clashes overnight in Alexandria. Opponents of Morsi and the MB are already sealing off Cairo’s Tahrir Square and other main squares in Egypt’s major cities to prevent counter-rallies by the president's mostly-Islamist supporters, fuelling fears of potential violence.

Al-Watan newspaper reported on Tuesday that Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi strongly opposes any decision by President Morsi to declare a state of emergency. There is much anxiety in the air, and Cairo is a city full of rumors. One of these rumors is that President Morsi will replace al-Sisi and the army leadership with more “Muslim Brothers-friendly generals”!

If this is true, then it could quickly end Morsi’s political survival, shortening it from weeks to days as millions prepare to rally to demand his removal this weekend. All sides insist that they do not want violence and that they will do their best to prevent it. However, there have already been scuffles and deaths during the last few days.

The Egyptian upper and middle class is very apprehensive about Islamist rule - a coalition of local human rights groups accused Morsi's MB on Wednesday of crimes surpassing that of Mubarak’s regime and of setting up a "religious, totalitarian state."

But many Egyptians are simply frustrated by decreasing living standards and fears of chaos. For ordinary Egyptians, the main concern today is economic hardship, especially since the unrest of the revolution scared off tourists, cutting a vital source of income. Power cuts and fuel shortages have been the talk of the country for weeks. In Cairo and other cities, long lines of vehicles have formed at fuel stations.

Among the criticisms of Morsi, a less than charismatic speaker who became the MB’s presidential candidate as a last-minute stand-in, is that he has turned to the support of harder-line Islamist groups, including former militants. Many also accuse him of never delivering on any of the promises to non-Islamists who supported him in the election. The lynching of five people from the Shi'ite Muslim minority on Sunday revived fears among minorities, including Egypt's several million Christians, and was used by the opposition to portray Morsi as tolerant of an extremist fringe.

The heated political atmosphere and the prospect of widespread unrest prompted the US Embassy in Cairo and many other Western embassies to close to the public on Sunday, which is normally a work day in Egypt. People, mostly in Cairo, have begun stockpiling food in anticipation of street clashes between the two opposing political camps, with staples like canned goods, grains and frozen vegetables much sought after.

The Army’s signals are not understood by Morsi

There are reports that the army might be forced to enforce a solution in order to prevent the country from disintegrating, especially if the political impasse turns violent. The prospect of a political solution between the Islamists and their opponents looks very bleak. If violence surpasses a certain level, the army might be forced to be more proactive than it wants, mainly “to facilitate a transition of power to a technocratic caretaker government,” as The Guardian have quoted a senior military source today.

The MB and their Islamist allies are alarmed of the possibility of the army reverting back into the political scene on an official level. Islamists hardliners accuse State’s institutions, including courts, state media, police and civil service, of working to undermine Morsi, and, on several occasions, they have promised to fight if the army intervenes.

The army, which is held in high regard by many Egyptians, has warned it could step back in, a year after it handed power to the elected president. Defense Minister al-Sisi stated that the army “will not allow anyone to intimidate or terrorize the people.” He further added, “We would rather die than let that happen.” Similarly, Al-Sisi claimed that “the moral responsibility of the army towards the Egyptian people would compel it to intervene and prevent the country from descending into conflict, internal divisions and even the ultimate collapse of the state.”

On Wednesday the army tanks took up positions near a major highway running into Cairo. Egyptian armed forces have now deployed in Cairo and cities across the country in line with a security plan developed in anticipation of 30 June’s opposition protests.

The deployed army divisions will secure important institutions, including universities, power grids, Aswan's High Dam and the Suez Canal. In the Egyptian Suez Canal city of Port Said, the army reinforced its presence on Wednesday. The army has been deployed to key locations in the port city since January. Armored vehicles toured the city's streets on Wednesday afternoon before parking in front of the governorate headquarters. Residents cheered for the forces' presence.

The military deployment is also aimed at protecting vital institutions, public facilities, foreign embassies and strategic points including entrances to governorates. The Army Spokesperson reported that “the army would also monitor criminal hotspots and suspected jihadi strongholds,” but that “no troops had been sent to the state-owned Maspero broadcasting house yet.” Just outside of Cairo, Media Production City, where many of the private broadcasting stations are located, has also been secured, with more forces expected to descend on other areas within the next few hours.

Pro-Morsi Islamists have condemned the opposition over the planned rallies, accusing them of waging war on Islam. Some radical preachers have even said that “those taking to the streets against the Islamist President should be killed!” The army has made clear that its statements about a possible intervention are, at least in part, responding to these threats.

Another worrying factor is that the loyalty of police and other internal security services to the Islamist government may be in question. There are reports that at least 7,000 high-ranking officers (some retired) will participate in the 30 June protests.

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Growing risk of a backlash in Egypt

Egyptian politics The atmosphere across the most populous Arab country has become very intimidating, with a clear risk of violence between opposing forces, writes Hamdi Hassan from Cairo.

The powerful General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi issued a pressing ultimatum to President Morsi in a televised audio statement on Monday afternoon, calling on political forces to bridge Egypt's growing divide and agree on an inclusive roadmap for the country's future within 48 hours.

The swiftness of the army's new statement suggests it was motivated by the stunning turnout of the millions of protesters on Monday and eruptions of violence that portend a possible spiral into chaos... I believe the preparations made by the military and police to secure the country gave the people a sense of security to go out and demonstrate in numbers that minimize the prospect of counterattacks by Islamists.

"If the demands of the people are not realized within the defined period, it will be incumbent upon (the armed forces)... to announce a road map for the future," said al-Sisi. Thereafter, the military issued a second statement on its Facebook page denying it intended a coup. "The ideology and culture of the Egyptian armed forces does not allow for the policy of a military coup," it said.

Yet, the army’s statement was widely understood as an alarm for the Brotherhood's Guidance Bureau to respond to the demands of the people. If the MB’s bureau does not concede, it is understood that the army will create a roadmap binding on all parties.

The political opposition welcomed the army's statement, viewing it as a sign that the army had sided with the people in demanding early presidential elections. "Any cabinet reshuffle, change of prosecutor-general, or any decision by President Morsi other than his resignation is unacceptable," the National Salvation Front (NSF) claimed. The NSF refuted the possibility of the army's return to domestic politics, saying it had learnt its lesson during Egypt's post-revolution transitional phase.

There are unsettling prospects for many Egyptians who concerned with the army stepping into politics. I doubt that the army wishes to make any reentry into politics. The great majority of Egyptians believe that 17 months of interim rule by the army, fraught with economic and political crises, was more than enough for the army. Moreover, its statement reiterated its commitment to the nascent democracy.

Protesters erupted with joy after the army statement

A great sense of relief has spread over Egypt after the military’s statement. Hundreds of thousands of Egyptian protesters erupted with joy on Monday after the military said it would intervene if the people’s demands were not met in 48 hours. Tahrir Square’s celebrations were reminiscent of the night Mubarak was forced from office in 2011, as hundreds of thousands of people rejoiced at what they perceived as the end of the MB and Morsi's rule.

The leadership of “Tamarod” (the “Rebel” campaign) said on Monday that they welcomed the army’s ultimatum and urged people to rally again until Morsi quits. In a televised press conference, they claimed “the statement of the Armed Forces has a single idea — supporting the will of the Egyptian people at this moment, which means early presidential elections.” They also reiterated their ultimatum that is provided on their website, giving Morsi “until 5:00pm on Tuesday, July 2 to leave power, allowing state institutions to prepare for early presidential elections.” Otherwise, “Tuesday, 5:00 pm will be the beginning of a complete civil disobedience campaign.”

One of the campaign’s leaders added, “Morsi is no longer a president, we call on the masses to take to the streets and besiege the two Presidential Palaces of Qubba and Ettihadiya in Heliopolis at 5pm Tuesday.” He further added that Tamarod will read a statement at the Presidential Palace at 7:30 pm Tuesday. “We have devised a scenario to run the country by handing power to the president of the Supreme Constitutional Court, National Security Council, as well as the formation of a technocratic government during the upcoming period,” he said.

Many of those who supported the army’s intervention hope that the army's road map will be the same framework drawn up by Tamarod. That plan calls for Morsi to step down and for the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court to become interim president while a technocrat government is formed. An expert panel will write a new constitution to replace the one largely drafted by Islamists, and a new presidential election will be held in six months.

Morsi rejects the army’s statement

Morsi rejected the declaration, claiming that the army had not cleared it with him, and that it could cause confusion. The spokesman for the presidency also denounced any declaration that would “deepen division” and “threaten the social peace.” Morsi claims to be consulting “with all national forces to secure the path of democratic change and the protection of the popular will.” What is meant by “national forces” here is any one’s guess!

Morsi’s rejection of the army’s ultimatum has raised the stakes in Egypt’s political crisis, which has resulted so far in 16 deaths, including eight in clashes between supporters and opponents of Morsi outside of the MB’s headquarters in the Muqattam district of Cairo. Protesters also set fire to the MB’s headquarters before storming and ransacking it. Local television footage caught the burning and subsequent looting on camera, in addition to damaging evidence of an MB supply of weapons, helmets, flak jackets, and materials for Molotov cocktails and petrol.

US President Barack Obama said the US is committed to democracy in Egypt, not any particular leader, adding that the. $1.3 billion in annual US aid to Egypt was based on "democracy-based criteria." Although Morsi was democratically elected, Obama said the government must respect its opposition and minority groups, and encouraged Morsi to take steps to show that he is responsive to concerns of demonstrators, while urging all sides to work towards a peaceful solution, Morsi and the MB have strived to give everyone the impression that the US always stood by them. Historically, however, American relationships with tyrannies and puppet regimes have come and gone quite quickly.

Fear of Islamist protester spreading violence

After the initial joy of massive rallies on Monday, the risk of a backlash has raised dramatically from Morsi's Islamist backers, including his powerful MB, some of who once belonged to armed militias. They vowed to resist what they depicted as a threat of a coup against the “Islamist president” who was legitimately elected.

The newly-formed National Coalition for Legitimacy denounced the military's statement, stressing its "rejection of any attempt to turn the army against (democratic) legitimacy." Islamist marches numbering in the thousands began last night in a number of cities, mostly in Upper Egypt, igniting clashes in some places. An alliance of the MB and the hardliner Islamists of Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya read a statement at a televised news conference calling on people to rally to prevent "any attempt to overturn" Morsi's election.

Leading MB figure Mohammed el-Beltagi told a rally of thousands of Islamists outside a mosque in Nasr City, near the Ittihadiya presidential palace, "Any coup of any kind against legitimacy will only pass over our dead bodies." Assigned with protecting the rally was a line of approximately 1,500 men with shields and helmets, who, with military precision, marched and sang, "Stomp our feet, raise a fire. Islam's march is coming." Rumors of incoming Islamist militias circulated all over Cairo last night. Heavy clashes took place last night in the canal city of Suez between the supporters of Morsi and his opponents. Nearly 1,500 Islamist militants marched in Suez, carrying sticks and rifles that fire birdshot, chanting for Morsi and damaging cars. The atmosphere has become very intimidating, with a clear risk of violence by these forces.

Several resignations from the government and more to come

In a sign of Morsi's growing isolation, five cabinet ministers, including the Foreign Minister, have submitted their resignations since Sunday’s mass protests. In addition to the ministers submitting their resignations, eight parliamentarians have also requested to resign.

Egypt’s Interior Ministry has issued a statement declaring its "full support" for the Armed Forces’ Monday statement. The police forces also announced their full solidarity with the Armed Forces out of concern for national security and Egypt’s best interests at this critical juncture. It is also reported that the Interior Minister called al-Sisi and told him that he will only receive orders from him and not the President.

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June 30 rebel campaign and the future of Islamists in Egypt

"The campaign led by a grassroots anti-Muslim Brotherhood petition drive has been endorsed by opposition parties and almost all non-Islamist groups in Egypt"

Egyptian politics

The Tamarrod (“Rebel”) movement, backed by mainstream and many other opposition groups to President Morsi, is planning to stage a sustained protest on June 30, calling for early presidential elections and the dismissal of Morsi. Leaders and supporters of Tamarrod argue that the main drive behind their demand resides in the failure of Morsi to act as a leader for all Egyptians and is "failing to implement policies to improve the life of ordinary people." It is worth noting that the date of 30 June marks the end of Morsi's first year as president. Unlike other uprisings elsewhere, Egyptian protestors from the outset on 25 January 2011 have always announced beforehand their marches and rallies, usually scheduled for dates with particular meaning.

The campaign led by a grassroots anti-Muslim Brotherhood petition drive has been endorsed by opposition parties and figures and almost all non-Islamist groups in Egypt. The campaign aims to collect 15 million citizens' signatures in support of a ‘withdrawal of confidence’ in Morsi and demand early presidential elections. This target was set in an attempt to outnumber the 13+ million votes Morsi received in elections in 2012. According to unconfirmed reports the campaign is said to have already exceeded its original goal.

The “Rebel” Campaign

Tamarrod leadership, revolutionary youth organizations and opposition groups are planning massive peaceful rallies besieging the presidential palace and occupying all government and public offices in Cairo. The movement plans to extend to Egypt’s major cities and also to the countryside until Morsi gives in and resigns.

If these protests are successful in forcing early presidential elections, the Tamarrod campaign has proposed that the President of the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) should replace President Morsi. The SCC president "would take power as part of a government of technocrats and a national defense council with 65-percent military members." This proposal is based on article 84 contained in Egypt´s 1971 constitution regulating the transfer of power from the President to Speaker of Parliament and to SCC’s President.

Since Tamarrod leadership dismisses the current constitution, claiming it is fully Islamist-sponsored, they call for a return to the 1971 Constitution without the amendments made during the rule of Sadat and Mubarak. Therefore, the leadership of the Campaign is planning to submit a full petition to the SCC before 30 June, formally calling for a withdrawal of confidence in Morsi.

Judging by media reports, as well as intensified campaigns and statements by a large number of opposition leaders, groups, unions and ordinary citizens, it is expected that millions of Egyptians will take to the streets nationwide to express anger and disappointment at Morsi and his Muslim Brothers. Watching a number of opposition rallies in smaller cities and villages outside Cairo confirms that the heated atmosphere in Cairo, Alexandria and cities across Egypt is shared elsewhere. Indeed, the build-up and mobilization is taking place all over the Nile Delta and cities of the Suez Canal Zone.

Interestingly, there is also a feeling that people do not care what will happen afterwards - who will rule and how after the possible ouster of the Muslim Brothers’ regime? The “rebellion” in the making seems more like someone who has been through a car accident: it’s all about survival!

The Army and the Police

As recently as June 16th the Egyptian Army has made it clear that it will not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. Following Morsi’s support for a no-fly zone in Syria, the state news agency quoted a military source as saying “The Egyptian army is to protect Egypt and its national security only ... The Egyptian army will not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries and will not be lured or used in any regional conflicts.”

Additionally, the Army notably cancelled the usual celebrations for the annual Air Defense Forces Day on 30 June. Some analysts see this as a way for the Army to avoid hosting Morsi on this particular day. One Cairo newspaper (Al Watan, 13 June) reported that the Army has declined to host Morsi in some of the military facilities during the protests, claiming that Morsi’s protection is the duty of the Republican Guards. The Interior minister revealed that protection of the presidential palace would remain the exclusive duty of the Republican Guards, according to a comprehensive Interior Ministry security plan drawn up as early as 2009. Meanwhile, the Commander of Republican Guards made clear that he will not use any force against protesters!

The Military Spokesman announced in a statement that the Army is on high alert for the 30 June rallies, and that the Army will only mobilize when it is necessary to protect the people and the State’s vital institutions. The Army is securing the roads in and out of the Sinai and Western and Southern borders in what is seen as an attempt to prevent Islamist and Jihadi militias from entering cities where the 30 June protests will take place. Al-Masry al-Youm newspaper reported (16 June) that Morsi and MB were warned by the Army from using violence against protesters.

The Interior Minister has pledged that police will not confront protesters during demonstrations on 30 June. He explained, “The Egyptian police’s sole role is to protect protesters, the state and security institutions.” He added that police forces would not secure any political party offices, including those of the ruling MB.

Egypt’s police force — notorious for its brutality in previous occasions — claim it has changed substantially since the revolt that toppled Mubarak in February 2011. According to the Chairman of the Police Union, thousands of police officers announced that they will participate in the June 30 demonstrations.

The Islamists Rallies

Morsi has lately made a number of public speeches that further angered his opponents. On 6 June he invited Islamists groups and other supporters for a public discussion on the Ethiopian planned “renaissance dam.” Among those in attendance were diehard Salafi Jihadi, of which 22 were sentenced to life for murder and subsequently pardoned by Morsi. In another well-televised rally, Morsi had cut relations with Syria, explaining that he cut diplomatic ties partly over the involvement of Hezbollah in support of Assad’s regime.

Allies of Morsi, mainly Jihadi Salafi, have vowed to hold counter rallies. They announced that they intend to use violence against those who threaten the “legitimacy of the Islamist President.” In light of their violent history, there is growing anxiety that protests could descend into bloody clashes. There are reports that the MB and their supporters will mobilize in the street between 21-27 June and to leave the streets before the planned rallies on 30 June. The leadership of the second largest Islamist Party, Al Nour, has declared its intention not to participate in any rally in the coming weeks.

Three Possible Scenarios

The current impasse may lead to one of the following main three scenarios:

1 - The largely peaceful rallies may force Morsi to resign (as was the case with Mubarak), with a political compromise that the MB maintain a role in formal political processes. After all, it is estimated that the MB have a political constituency of 25-30 percent.

2 - There may certainly be violent clashes from the outset, as some hardliner Jihadi have threatened. They might also play a role in quelling protestors. Once violence reaches a significant level, this would immediately lead to the intervention of the Army and a possibly tragic end to the reign of the MB.

3 - The protests will, after one or two days, weaken. The Egyptian people may be too tired and anxious for stability. The status quo would prevail and Morsi and MB would continue to hold power.

The facts on the ground and the heated debates across the country suggest that the first two scenarios are more likely than the third. However, when asked, many Egyptians are unfortunately anticipating more difficult times ahead in their complex quest for democratic transition.

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Egypt’s Sisyphean quest for freedom, dignity and democracy

 

“The MB is accused of attempting to reproduce the regime of Mubarak in a more crude and provincial fashion”

Egyptian politics With the regime failing to reach a political consensus with the opposition and deliver on their promises, the prospect for moving Egypt out of the impasse looks very bleak, writes Hamdi Hassan.

At the center of Egyptian life lies a severe sense of disillusionment. The pride of modern Egypt among its people has been far greater than the deed of its consecutive rulers. After the popular uprising, Egypt’s political landscape still allows for a single political force to monopolize political power and diminish all potential rivals. Massive protests, often resulting in violent clashes, continue to be seen almost on a daily basis.

Egypt will rapidly degenerate into a failed state if there are no serious attempt to deal with deep political polarization, fatal security breaches and the imminent economic collapse. Egypt, as Hazem Kandil puts it, “is trapped in a balance of weakness. None of the key actors have the power to consolidate a new regime or even to resurrect the old one.” Nevertheless, ordinary Egyptians continue to hope for political reform, freedom and social justice.

The Muslim Brotherhood and the opposition

When it comes to the first flank in the “balance of weakness,” there is a near consensus that President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood (MB) are losing legitimacy by virtue of their inability to deliver on, for example reconciliation, economic reforms, meaningful democracy. While seeking a monopoly of power, the MB lacks the necessary expertise to rule a country as large as Egypt with so many problems.

This failing to rule and deliver has triggered something akin to a MB-phobia among many Egyptians. For many, Egypt seems less modern - certainly less liberal and less tolerant - than it used to be. In fact, Egypt is in limbo with forces pulling in both directions – government is neither secular enough for secularists nor Islamic enough for Islamists! Therefore, it is important to see the battle for modernity as taking place in part through the lens of religion in public affairs.

The political reform process should have begun with building inclusive political institutions. Inclusive institutions distribute political power in a pluralistic manner, helping to achieve sustained economic growth based on the rule of law in the long-term. However, with the MB in power, political pluralism is lacking in Egypt. The MB has failed to deliver on electoral promises, and to live up to their commitment to a truly participatory politics. Western governments are increasingly concerned that Egypt’s government will exhaust the country’s foreign reserves rather than adopt necessary painful austerity measures.

Moreover, it went into open-ended confrontation with the judiciary, pitting various institutions of the state against one another. The performance of Morsi is discrediting the MB’s Islamic project. The survival of this project is conditioned on a few key steps: a true process of revision and reform; a decision by the MB to act like they are part of the existing system rather than trying to overthrow it to bring in a new one; and to come to terms with the fact that democracy is not a one-off electoral process, but rather a complex, multi-layered mechanism. The Islamists have to step beyond preaching Sharia and offer solutions to serious problems. They need to realize that when in power they have to serve all citizens. The danger of an economic collapse is real, but it is not the only threat on the horizon.

The other flank in the balance is the opposition National Salvation Front (NSF), which has been facing increasing criticism over its responses to political developments, but its main challenge appears to run deeper. Indeed, the NSF is perceived as only being an anti-Islamist coalition that lacks a credible internal political structure. The NSF has no comprehensive proposal for dealing with Egypt’s tribulation; its stance has been by and large opportunistic. Neither has it developed strong organizational links with the labor movement. Instead, it remains heavily reliant on the support of urban-middle-upper classes. The NSF’s political platform reflects this as it barely contains any genuine social and economic elements.

Serious questions are asked about the ability of the NSF to establish solid foundations in Egypt's political life. Given the economic difficulties and the senseless timing of MB austerity measures, the NSF is “investing” in the crisis of the economy and seems to be counting on the MB’s damaged reputation and sinking popularity, awaiting the long-anticipated explosion of the poor and degeneration into chaos. However, a political explosion of sorts is actually unlikely to lead to gains for the opposition, since it is most likely that it is the army that will be in charge. All players in the political game will be disadvantaged.

The military and the popular discontent with Islamists

The political forecast in Egypt looks bleak and the atmosphere is boiling. In pursuit of their “Islamist project,” observers believe that the MB is seriously underestimating the public anger and the force of street mobilization and they confuse it with the opposition failure to come forward with a political alternative to them. It was the street protests that compelled the Supreme Council for Armed Forces (SCAF) to go ahead with political reform and election. Two years on, the intensity of continued protests illuminates the depth of the political impasse in Egypt and reflects the socioeconomic injustices that have afflicted Egyptians for decades. Rage is simmering among a wide spectrum of the population in Egypt. Egyptians have grappled with decades of political tyranny and trauma through continued and resolved demonstrations to achieve political reform.

There are reasons to believe that these protests will only escalate, due to the stagnation of political reforms and lack of confidence in government. The MB government is perceived by many as being utterly incompetent and there are calls for the army to step in to save the country from breakdown. All over Egypt, people are urging Defense Minister El-Sessi to replace president Morsi due to his failure to rule effectively. Due to heavy criticism for its failures while leading the transitional period, the military seems to only care about its autonomy from the political system. Nevertheless, it will not be able to isolate itself entirely—something understood by a number of commanders. The army has clearly hinted that it needs undisputed popular legitimacy to step in as they did before. However, the fragile and unsustainable political, economic and social situation creates risks for the army’s intervention.

The implicit agreement that the army had with Egypt’s military rulers (Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak) is enshrined in the new constitution and this creates severe pressures on the MB, which will have a hard time to keep the military out of politics. The relationship between the MB and the army is complex. The MB correctly realizes the danger that the military’s interests and power represent. Nevertheless, their strategy to contain this threat remains contingent and short-sighted. The MB seems to confine the political struggle to one that is only with the military. Since the MB does not take the NSF as a credible opponent, they seem to forget that the military does not seek a leading role in politics.

The MB is looking fervently for a general within the military commanders who would help them work out their wishes to control the army, or at least to keep it outside the political game. They initially thought that El-Sessi would be their general, it turned out he put the interest of the army above anything else and he also reflects the military’s age-old suspicions of Islamists. The MB is very nervous of how the army would react in case of a wide popular protest or if Islamist militias commit serious acts of violence. On their meeting with Morsi on April 11, the generals made clear that they will never tolerate the existence of any militia and that they would eradicate Hamas and jihadi infiltrators into Sinai.

The flooding of Gaza’s tunnels by the military may have some bearing on this relationship and be taken as indicative of pressures being exerted on Hamas, and by implication the MB. It might also be a message to both the MB and Hamas. The military consider Hamas to be a serious threat to national security, which negatively affected its relationship with the MB. It seems that the army is securing the Sinai area from jihadi threat and also making sure to prevent Hamas fighters to join forces with MB in case of future army deployment to street.

Where is Egypt heading?

With Morsi and the MB failing to reach a political consensus with the opposition and deliver on their promises, the prospect for moving Egypt out of the impasse looks very bleak. The MB is accused of attempting to reproduce the regime of Mubarak in a more crude and provincial fashion. The MB might believe that the world community would tolerate and accept this proto-authoritarian modus operandi in the name of stability. However, the opposition, youth movements and the popular resistance to the MB’s Islamist project are intensifying with violence on the rise.

If the economic collapse triggers rioting and social violence by the poor, according to the constitution the army will fulfill its duty and deploy into the streets. As El-Sessi has hinted time and again, the army has vowed to side with the people and protect the integrity of the state. There are those within the army who believe that the MB and Morsi will not survive the political impasse and deepening economic crisis. Unless significant steps are taken by the ruling Islamists on reaching out to their opponents and to deliver in terms of the economy and security, Egypt is heading to a bleak future with the army stepping once more into the forefront of political life. By the same token, democratization processes will suffer a serious setback.

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Turkiet: potential och prioriteringar

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The Egyptian Revolution: A Carnival of Rage and Comic Defiance!

An examination of the demise of the Mubarak regime through the eyes of Egyptians, whose lives were, until now and, ironically, still in many ways, defined by it, is a helpful tool to understand the current situation of people revolting in the name of “bread, freedom and social justice.”

 When the youth protesters first took to Cairo’s Tahrir Square on January 25 2011, they chanted their desire, among other things, for a state that promised social justice, unity, and equal rights for all. Even though they committed violent acts at times, most of these youngsters were longing for a new and democratic Egypt it seemed. They strongly believed that what was experienced in Tahrir at the outset of the Revolution would materialize in real social and political life.

 Recently however, the opposition group the National Salvation Front (NSF) called for a protest against the Islamist government to “continue the Revolution” and reiterate "demands" for the dismissal of the current government, the amendment of the recently-approved constitution and the appointment of a new prosecutor-general.

The nation-wide demonstrations that took place over the last few days were to show solidarity with Port Said, Suez, and Ismailia. In addition to a march on Wednesday, the Opposition, the National Salvation Front (NSF) announced that there would be a large rally on Friday in Tahrir Square and all other main squares across Egypt (mainly the cities north of Cairo in and around the Nile Delta). The cities, south of Cairo in Upper Egypt are often not part of the uprising, reportedly due to the strong presence of Islamists and/or the high level of illiteracy and poverty.

New types of protesters are joining in!

I have attended demonstrations, watching Egyptian protesters since the summer of 2011. Last week, attendees of the demonstrations were a new mélange of people. They were not simply overwhelmingly youth, bearded Islamist men or middle class persons. There were many “ordinary” Egyptians, and the diversity that that represents, who were fiercely fighting the police and burning buildings.  Many of these “ordinary” Egyptians were not affiliated with any political group or religious organization.

It is quite possible that many of these people have never cared to vote. However, this illuminates the depth of the political impasse in this country and, by the same token, it shows how it is important to deal seriously with the socioeconomic injustices that Egypt has been suffering over the last few decades.

Poor education, unemployment, poverty and disenfranchisement created a reservoir of resentment against Mubarak’s regime and now against the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) government. This rage is simmering not only among the youth who revolted against Mubarak and now the MB, but also among the many newcomers to the world of Egyptian protests.

There are reasons to believe that these protests will only escalate, due to the stagnant political reform process, lack of confidence in basic government services, and social justice gap. Protesters perceive the MB government as one that is working to maintain the status quo, which has triggered something akin to a Muslim Brother-phobia among many Egyptians.

As a result, every few weeks there is an explosion of violence. Notably however, what happened in the Suez Canal Zone cities has nothing to do with the political games between the Islamists and their opponents in Cairo. Rather, they were provoked to protest for reasons that are intimate to their day-to-day life. This is an example of “ordinary” Egyptians joining the protests. Egyptians have time and again tried the ballot box; they have been through six elections in two years, with no avail. They see no progress. Frustration is widespread. There is a feeling on the ground that two years have been wasted in this painful transitional period, first under the rule of the military, and now under the Islamists.

Until there are responsive politicians and a capable government, able to deal seriously with the problems of economy, security and political reform, unrest will continue, putting yet more strain on this fragile society and economy. It seems as if political forces in Egypt lack the ability to find ways to deal with the age-old political authoritarianism and socioeconomic injustice. Many citizens in the Middle East, not only in Egypt, feel that the wave of uprisings has produced many politicians whose ambition far exceeds their capacity and personal quality.  Fortunately or unfortunately, transition periods are learning processes that the region has to live through.

 The carnival of rage, misery and comic defiance

 After two years of non-stop uprising, Egyptians do not “do'' curfews, they go out in the street to watch what a curfew looks like and soon join in! There was a joke that came out as a headline in one of Cairo’s newspaper today saying that one of the biggest problems with the curfew is that there were so many people in the streets! A few days later, Morsi was forced to reconsider the state of emergency he imposed in the Canal Zone cities. He reconsidered after he realized that no one would ever respect him or his government, or any tyranny for that matter.

Ismailia and Port Said have witnessed mass demonstrations in defiance of President Morsi’s decision. Soldiers from the Second Army, deployed in Port Said, allowed a 2000-strong protest to pass through checkpoint, breaking the curfew. After midnight, the shops and street cafes of Suez were still open. The army, for its part, has not been interfering or trying to impose the curfew.

 In Ismailia, residents organized football games in front of the governorate headquarters in a show of defiance. Some of the audiences were soldiers from the Third Army, deployed in the city. The media reported on the curfew football tournament in Ismailia, in which a team named "Revolution" beat a team called “Shater” (named after the most powerful man within the Muslim Brothers) five to zero!

Setting aside any positive elements of what might be happening in the Egyptian scene (such as more people feeling emboldened), it is clear that the country cannot sustain its current course. Radical moves and political courage need to manifest.

 A mixture of rage and comedic defiance has been the hallmark of the Arab Spring, particularly in the Egyptian scene. Protest and revolution shake the Arab world’s peoples in this painful transitional process. However, when looking at these macro-processes, it is inevitable to take into account the strategic reserve of soft power and the vast reservoir of tradition making sense of life under harsh conditions of political tyranny, religious extremism and social conservatism. Mixing misery with humorous acts has always been a means of survival in the history of Egyptians. Even when they are not revolting, Egyptian humor has been their defense against apathy and atomization.

 This mix of rage, misery and comic defiance makes political activism in the street seem like a spectacle and carnival; from afar, it might seem insane.  In his idea of the carnival, the great Russian literary critic and semiotician, Mikhail Bhaktin, emphasized that the act of carnival liberates, transgresses and subverts. If the carnival is locked into the dictates of the ruling clique (whether political or religious tyrannies), perhaps then it becomes merely a contained performance of freedom, as opposed to genuine freedom. However, the defiance of curfew through the organization of a traditional music festival in Port Said and football games in Ismailia with winners and losers representing political forces, is an act of intended subversion and, definitely of liberation.

 I am not exaggerating if I say that the brave youth of Egypt are fighting the battle of freedom for the good of the entire region. If it goes bad here, it will go worse everywhere else. There is a shared destiny. Youngsters in Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, Iraq and the Gulf are very likely to be looking at Egypt with great anxiety.

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”Egyptierna kämpar för hela regionens frihet”

Hamdi Hassan på Tahrirtorget den 25 januari 2013

Jag har funnits bland demonstranterna och bevakat protesterna i Egypten sedan sommaren 2011. Förra veckan upptäckte jag en ny typ av människor bland demonstranter. Inte överväldigande unga, inte skäggiga manliga islamister och inte bara medelklass utan helt vanliga egyptier som slåss med polisen och tänder eld på byggnader. Det är möjligt att många av dessa människor aldrig har brytt sig om att rösta. Att de nu deltar i protesterna belyser det här landets politiska återvändsgränd – och samtidigt hur viktigt det är verkligen att ta tag i de socioekonomiska orättvisorna som Egypten lidit av i decennier.



Usel utbildning, arbetslöshet, fattigdom och att majoriteten av befolkningen berövats sina medborgerliga rättigheter har skapat en uppdämd förbittring, först mot Mubaraks regim och nu mot brödraskapsregeringen. Vreden sjuder inte bara bland de unga som protesterade mot Mubarak, och nu den nya regeringen, utan också bland dessa nya demonstranter. Eftersom de politiska reformerna står still och förtroendet för regeringens förmåga att ge grundläggande välfärdstjänster eller social rättvisa är mycket lågt lär protesterna fortsätta och rent av öka.

Läs mer: Kristna Fredsrörelsens blogg

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