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12.24.2012

Reflections on the Referendum on the Draft of the New Constitution


Egypt's fiercely disputed draft constitution is certain to pass after unofficial results from the second and final round of referendum voting show that around 64 percent of Egyptians voted in its favour. However, the voter turnout is as low as 30 percent and official results are not expected until Monday.

 During this final phase of Egypt’s constitutional referendum, 25,495,237 voters were eligible to take part in the polls. The voting took place in 176 general polling stations and 6,274 sub-stations in 17 governorates. It was a relatively humdrum day with fewer incidents of violence but much more systemic irregularities.

The Supreme Electoral Commission extended the voting hours from 7pm to 11pm due to "high voter turnout.” However, the turnout in the second phase is not expected to exceed the 32 percent witnessed in the first phase. In fact, it is reported that it is only 30 percent, due to the irregularities and discouragement of voters in areas where Islamists have little support, especially in the Delta.




Allegations of systemic rigging
 The opposition has complained of violations and systematic rigging again, which they believe threaten the legitimacy of the entire process. Accusations of voting improprieties throughout the day included allegations of rigged votes, the banning of rival voters from entering polling stations, the delayed opening of some polling stations, MB and Salafi attempts to influence and direct voters, non-cooperation of judges with monitors, and a refusal by judges to receive official complaints.

For example, human rights watchdogs reported that Copts in the governorates of Minya and Qena in Upper Egypt were prevented from leaving their villages to cast their votes. As a result, in some cases, the army and the police had to provide safe passages for the Copts to cast their votes.

 Instances like this have led to outcry. In Ismailia Governorate, bordering the Suez Canal, members of the opposition group the National Salvation Front announced in the afternoon the withdrawal of their delegates, who were monitoring the referendum. They withdrew in objection to “massive violations.”
 There are fears of further electoral violations. Electrical power was cut off from most of the villages in the central Delta Menoufiya Governorate during voting hours. Power has been completely cut off since 5:30pm for 20 villages and some others experienced intermittent stoppages in the early hours of the evening. Some people fear that the MB will use this opportunity to rig the votes. In the presidential elections, Menoufiya overwhelmingly voted for former presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq against Mohamed Morsi.
The committee overseeing the two-stage vote said its investigations showed no major irregularities in voting during the first round, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters.


Voting patterns
The second round of voting looks much like the first round of voting on the draft of the new constitution. Voting patterns highlighted societal divisions such as those between urban cities versus the country side, that arguably have to do mostly with differing levels of education. The pattern of voting also reflected an age-specific split, as the second phase of the referendum on the draft constitution got underway. Most of those voting "no" were predominantly university students, fresh graduates or young professionals who feel that the draft constitution fails to meet their expectations and their dream of a better Egypt, for which they revolted two years ago.

Moreover, the condition of utter poverty and analphabetism is tightly connected with the “yes” vote in the referendum on the constitution. In Upper Egypt, the turnout was low but the approval was high. For example, in the Governorate of Meniya in Upper Egypt, the constitution was approved by 84 percent. This was more or less the case in other provinces in Upper Egypt from Fayoum to Beni Suef down to Aswan, where the level of poverty and analphabetism is very high by any standard. This pattern also applies in the case of predominantly Bedouin provinces of Marsa Matrouh, New Valley in the West desert and the two provinces of Sinai Peninsula.


Fears of spreading violence

There are fears that the MB and Islamists intend to pass the constitution at any cost, and that this might fire back on the government, causing the government to lose control of the political process and trigger violence throughout the country. Many observers believe that the Muslim Brotherhood has divided Egyptians more than ever before.

What happened the last few weeks in Alexandria is being hailed by some as a paragon of virtue. In this city where Islamists (especially Salafis) have been the dominant force for many years, thanks to the negligence of the government, things have changed during the last few months. The Islamists have not only lost influence in the city, but ordinary citizens have been engaging in heavy fighting with Islamists to throw them out of the mosques and, ultimately, out of the city.

The same phenomena has been spreading to other cities in Cairo, in the Nile Delta (most notably Tanta and the Textile city of Mahla) and the Suez Canal’s three major cities, Ismailia, Port Said and Suez.

Threats and intimidation from Islamist thugs, and Salafi thugs specifically, directed to opposition figures have become the normal state of affairs. Prominent opposition figures like ElBaradei had been the target of threats from Salafi thugs, called “Hazemoun,” (supporters of the Salafi former presidential candidate Hazem Salah Abu Ismail). ElBaradei was warned not to cast his ballot in the second round of the referendum. He received various threats from unknown persons, making it difficult for him to go and vote.


Resignation of vice-president

Mahmoud Mekki announced last night that he had resigned as vice-president. Mekki was uncomfortable in politics. “I realized a while ago that the political nature of the work does not fit my career as a judge," he said in a statement. Mekki asserted that this was not the first time the thought of resignation had crossed his mind.

There are suspicions in the air about other possible reasons for his resignation. It was disclosed earlier that Mekki had not been informed of Morsi's power grab. In addition, the timing of his resignation might be linked to the lack of a vice-presidential post under the draft constitution.

Upon his return from Pakistan on 23 November, Mekki was reportedly surprised to find out about the constitutional decree issued by President Morsi a day earlier, and then later a law to "guard the revolution." Mekki's plan to resign was then apparently delayed due to his recent attempt to manage a national dialogue between political forces and the presidency in order to resolve "the current state of political polarization."

Some might take Mekki's resignation, coming a few hours before the end of the final phase of the referendum, as swayed by the fact that the new constitution does not require a vice president

Mekki started his career in the police force, graduating from the Police Academy and serving as a Central Security Forces officer. Later, he earned a bachelor's degree in law and eventually headed Egypt's Court of Cassation. A reformist judge, Mekki is most well-known for advocating for judicial reforms under the former Mubarak regime. Mekki was one of those judges who opposed the rigging of parliamentary elections in 2005, widely held to be fraudulent. His brother, Judge Ahmed Mekki, is minister of justice in current government.

Looking forward

If the draft of the constitution is approved, the opposition will stir up more trouble since it will not have received sufficiently broad backing amid questions about the fairness of the vote. Protesters were initially provoked by Morsi’s power grab on 22 November 2012, which gave him powers likened to the powers held by a pharaoh. Morsi was, ultimately, forced to issue a second decree two weeks ago that amended a provision putting his decisions above legal challenge.

The Islamist-sponsored constitution will pass with a narrow majority; the United States continues to take a wait-and-see approach. In general, European governments have been more direct in criticizing Morsi’s actions but equally hesitant to take meaningful action. As disparate actors seek to coordinate foreign policy through the European Union institutions, they often possess dissimilar interests and differing views of the region. This makes coordinated action difficult. The weakness of Egypt’s opposition groups only strengthens the alliance between the MB and the US government. This alliance can, ultimately, help ease up European criticism and allow for a business as usual relation with Morsi.

The United States has always tolerated domestic transgressions for the sake of stability and cooperation on strategic initiatives and this continues today. The US has demonstrated leniency toward the MB since Morsi ascended to presidency of Egypt. This has led many to question how an Islamist organization formerly designated as a terrorist group by the US government became a close ally, seemingly overnight. It was the dramatic toppling of Mubarak and realpolitik demands in the new post-Mubarak context that led the US to become a close ally overnight.

Indeed, these are different times with very intense political energy in the streets, combined now with fierce opposition to Islamists and their political agenda. Morsi’s actions and style of decision making have already provoked large swaths of the population. One might argue that Morsi contributed towards societal polarization in Egypt, as well as a new determination to resist the Islamist political agenda. This polarization will be very costly for Egypt’s economic recovery and political reforms.

Late on Saturday, Morsi announced the names of 90 new members he appointed to the upper house of parliament (Shura Council). A presidential official said the list was mainly composed of liberals and other non-Islamists. However, this was refuted by Morsi's main opponents, including liberal, socialist and other parties who refused to take any seats.

Legislative powers, now held by Morsi because the lower house of parliament was dissolved earlier this year, will pass to the upper house under the new constitution. Two-thirds of the 270-member upper house was elected in a vote this year, with one third to be appointed by the president. Morsi, elected in June, had not named them till now. Morsi's Islamist party and its allies dominate the assembly.

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